The CEO of Freeport Mcmoran was on CNBC US, the other night. While the stock indexes plunged globally here was one guy with a smug smile on his face. Reason: they own the biggest gold mines on earth and no new Gold discoveries have come about. At most a $ 1000 per ounce price tab, will see money being pushed into marginal mines to pull out whatever metal is left under the surface. In the entire history of mankind, the total physical Gold that has been mined equals a Cube with one side about 35 feet in height. Most of this Gold is held by individuals in Asia, and demand is rising as younger families set up homes and buy bullion to build and protect wealth. But there is no more metal in sight..so a possible multi-year bull market in Gold is in the making, that should see metal prices cross the $ 1500 to $ 2000 an ounce figure in maybe 2 years from now.
Miners can scarcely believe their eyes as gold soars through another 28-year record. How far can it go? So much money to spend digging! Suddenly there is no shortage of bullish forecasters to cheer them on!
Earlier this year US investment bankers Morgan Stanley saw a target of $ 800 an ounce for 2008. Then Goldman Sachs came in with an $850. The two bankers outbid themselves. And then there were the cautious Swiss. Its bankers UBS put up a miserable $760 for 2008 and $700 for 2009. They had been going for $650 and $550 respectively – whoops!
Australia ’s Bureau of Agriculture and Resources isn’t getting over-excited either. Being economists, they talk in averages. For 2007 they’ve computed $675 and for 2008 a figure of $685. At least we can understand that they don’t think gold will fall far. French bankers Societe Generale have been coy on a precise target, but are less bullish now gold’s gone through $750. Yet the Dutch, at bankers ABN Amro, are forecasting that gold will have a very good Christmas indeed.
Waves of investment and speculation
Maybe the Swiss, French and Aussies bankers aren’t so wrong to be cautious. UBS refers to the jewellery demand and the attention being given to gold by investors and speculators.
Its analysts are seeing “waves of investment and speculation”. (Trust the Swiss to spot the money flows. That’s why they’re going for wide price swings).Given the volatile conditions, that seems to be the pattern of all markets this decade, so profit taking should be expected.
Will it stay up, or will it go down? Everyone seems to be looking for inspiration in different places. Isabel and I have researched the world over, clicking our mice and logging notes.
Morgan Stanley is looking at global growth and spreading inflation problems. Both are good for gold. The record high oil price is doing more than its bit to fuel inflation fears. The International Energy Agency prompted oil forecasts of $100 for this winter, referring to “a lofty deficit.” The Germans, in the form of refining group Heraeus, said they were keeping an eye on oil in response to another factor - declining South African mining output. It was down 5.2% in the third quarter on a year ago.
The Germans also focus on central bank gold sales. That’s a huge point. Reducing central bank sales have brought gold up from 1999s depths of $251. And they have good reason note it. Germany’s Bundesbank is the largest central bank in the Eurozone. It has said it will sell only eight tonnes of its 120 tonne allocation in the new Central Bank gold agreement year (it starts this month). The remaining 3,414 tonnes will be held back.
ALL down to ETFs?
South African broker Macquarie First South is saying it is ALL down to the investors in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). “The ETFs are actually driving the gold price because there’s so much money going into ETFs,” the broker’s analyst David Hall says.The Indians are looking at themselves. India’s gold imports for jewellery have been a major impetus to the gold price rise. The peak gold-buying Dussehra and Diwali festivals are celebrated in November.
In the January-June period Indian gold imports shot up nearly 90% to 521 tonnes. Not only is the country increasingly prosperous, but the rupee has been rising. That has kept the gold price below the sensitive Rs 10,000 per ten gram level. While forecasts for increasing gold consumption are being cut over there, they still show a 15-25% increase.
More importantly, in a nation of 1 bn people, a couple of million marriages take place across the country in the months from Diwali to February, and even small amounts of gold bought per marriage of say 200 to 300 ounces works out to a whopping 200 mn to 300 mn ounces of Gold demand in perpetuity. Some agreeably will be re-cycled Gold, but the rest is demand for fresh Gold mined out of the Earth.
The coming years can be different as Governments rapidly de-base currencies and a Nation which had seen slavery for nearly 200 years will revert to buying even more Gold, in place of all other assets including cash and currencies.
In London the precious metal traders were looking at the weakness of the dollar against the Euro. Traders Virtual Metals is another with an $800 forecast. That’s based on the dollar falling along with US interest rates.
Also scoring in our log is that “super fund” set up by the big three US banks to help out market liquidity. Predictably, comment comes from JP Morgan. This should keep US interest rates, and thus global liquidity, accommodative it says. So, “inflation-related pressures on gold will continue”.
De-hedging programmes at the mines have been providing yet more backing for gold. Those smart Australian economists quite rightly make a big thing of this. If the miners put tonnes of their future, as well as present, production on the market, that is a big dampener. Miners may “hedge” or guarantee their income by doing this. The weight of supply kills the price.
Rising gold removes the incentive to sell future production. “In the first half of 2007, gold producers reduced their outstanding hedge positions by around 300 tonnes, providing strong support for the gold price,” says the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics’ latest commodity review. Majors who did this included Barrick Gold, Newmont, Lihir Gold, and AngloGold Ashanti.
Everyone is trying to pick the top
There are detractors around. Better be prepared for the “bears”. As traders Marex Financial point out: “Everyone is trying to pick the top.” The hedging issue is raised at Japanese broker Mitsui. Its head of precious metal research, Edel Tully, says it was inevitable that the rate of de-hedging would slow.
Last year the gold price was helped by production falling to a ten-year low. At the moment world gold production is expected to be roughly stable. Less from South Africa, more from Australia, and merging producers like China. That may change.
Still, the dollar is key. UK bankers HSBC put it succinctly: “We have long maintained that the US dollar is the primary influence in determining gold prices.”
Complaints about the effect of the lower dollar on export markets are coming from Europe and China. Will Washington listen when there is an $800 billion-a-year current account deficit to worry about? Undoubtedly not!
So, not many points to trigger profit-taking, then.
Keep mining
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